SWC guild for Scholars in the combine. A place to read, discuss, present and learn about Philosophies, cultures, language amongst other things. The guild is faction neutral and accepts all into its halls.
 
HomeCalendarFAQSearchMemberlistUsergroupsRegisterLog in

Share | 
 

 Proposed Study: Galactic CPI

View previous topic View next topic Go down 
AuthorMessage
Kraak Ak-Xaiva
Junior Scholar
Junior Scholar


Posts : 7
Join date : 2013-12-22

PostSubject: Proposed Study: Galactic CPI   Fri Feb 07, 2014 1:12 pm

A Consumer Price Index consists of a basket of common goods purchased by the average sentient. In the Milky Way Galaxy, it often consists of staples such as:

Bread, Milk, a gallon of fuel, some KwH of electricity, Beer, Soda, Chicken, Fish, Toothbrush, Tylenol, Clothing, Shoes, Makeup, Jewelry.

I'm sure I'm forgetting some things, but the example serves the purpose. A broad-based basket of goods that prices are available for. These prices are then added up and over time compared to discern any number of important economic data. Inflation is the primary one, but there are many others. You can run regressions with CPI (inflation) vs Government spending, or unemployment to better understand the economy and modern life in general.

Galactic CPI would be the same thing, for our galaxy.

Project Name: Galactic CPI
Requested Amount: Negotiable. The data can likely be sold after the fact, if significant
Project Deadline: 9/1/14 at latest
Details of Project: The market basket

BFF
C-3
Yt2k
Ywing
Corona
Vibroblade
Relby K-23
A280
K-43
Crafting Kit
ELB
Macros
Thermals
R3 droid
Battle Droid
Rifleman
Bacta Patch
Healing Stick
Security Control Panel
Nova Crystal

Average prices will be determined on cpm and added together each month (excel spreadsheet) to determine index value, beginning now. Results will allow for analysis, trending, and hopefully forecasting.

It's my observation that deflation has slowed and things have moved toward an equilibrium, but the numbers should tell the story definitively.


Reasons for Undertaking: Personal Interest, Investment Strategy and Financial Planning
Benefit to the Guild: Investment Strategy and Financial Planning

Comments are welcome and needed. Especially don't know about some of the higher cost items, as their fluctuations could swallow up changes in the cheaper ones, but that's how CPI's tend to work. I also want to avoid rare items and restricted tech, and unimplimented items.
Back to top Go down
View user profile
Ashura Harma
Senior Scholar
Senior Scholar


Posts : 89
Join date : 2013-01-19

PostSubject: Re: Proposed Study: Galactic CPI   Fri Feb 07, 2014 5:09 pm

A very interesting idea, and approved as far as I'm concerned.

I see you did put the C3, or the Battle Droid. Those are somewhat luxury. Could you group your items into something like : luxury, investment and/or logistics, so we could have a better picture ? It's my opinion that the restricted items will continue raise, when the not restricted tech will be stable.
I would exclude the Nova Cristal which is based on the KD economy and would interact with gov investment if you do the regression.
You could also make two lists of items. Comparing their evolution would give info on internal validity.
You need to use a standard of 100 to start, and modify it by the mean percentage of inflation with the items. Don't use rough value in credit, else the higher values will take precedence over the lower.
Back to top Go down
View user profile
Kraak Ak-Xaiva
Junior Scholar
Junior Scholar


Posts : 7
Join date : 2013-12-22

PostSubject: Re: Proposed Study: Galactic CPI   Sat Feb 08, 2014 12:09 am

Yes, it's important to have a couple of luxury items to represent that small portion of the population (but much larger portion of economy). Nova Crystal was a last minute addition and will be removed based on your advice. It is deserving of its own study (either that or just to be tossed in the trash.)

'You need to use a standard of 100 to start, and modify it by the mean percentage of inflation with the items. Don't use rough value in credit, else the higher values will take precedence over the lower.'

Could you elaborate? I'm not entirely certain what you mean by standard of 100. I do agree that the lower value items could be swallowed by the larger ones, if one of those capital ships changed in mean value a lot, it would throw off the whole index. Rare items will continue to appreciate, since they aren't making any more of them, but the rate of appreciation could be interesting.. possibly more revealing than this, though it wouldn't relate as much to the "average Joe." But the average Joe probably wouldn't be interested in the data anyway- only the wealthy would be interested enough and afford to pay for it.

Back to top Go down
View user profile
Kraak Ak-Xaiva
Junior Scholar
Junior Scholar


Posts : 7
Join date : 2013-12-22

PostSubject: Re: Proposed Study: Galactic CPI   Sat Feb 08, 2014 12:21 am

After further consideration, I think I understand.

Instead of taking a percentage of the whole basket, take the change in each individual item, and then average the percentages for inflation rate. That's solid. In that case it may actually be more useful to add some more high priced items though.
Back to top Go down
View user profile
Ashura Harma
Senior Scholar
Senior Scholar


Posts : 89
Join date : 2013-01-19

PostSubject: Re: Proposed Study: Galactic CPI   Mon Feb 10, 2014 12:49 am

Yeah, sorry for my bad Basic, but you understood. That means keeping track of each individual item inflation, so more work, but in the end it will be more reliable.
Back to top Go down
View user profile
Kraak Ak-Xaiva
Junior Scholar
Junior Scholar


Posts : 7
Join date : 2013-12-22

PostSubject: Re: Proposed Study: Galactic CPI   Mon Feb 10, 2014 3:05 pm

Initial data collection is complete. I included some questionable entities since it's simple to remove data and in this case impossible to add.

screenshot
http://prntscr.com/2r7p4b

One thing I didn't include was NPC's. They're all unique, so theyre not suitable for a CPI. Unless being bought by an Anzat or flesh-eating species, to which theyre consumer goods, the difference in levels, skills, and races ruins their viability.

I decided to leave to Nova at a possible client's request. Anything else that might be added should be suggested now. Grouping items into categories can be done later, in the analysis.

Data collection didn't take as long as expected, only about half a standard hour, and should be even quicker next time. If any results look significant, I'll look into doing this again with restricted tech. One thing I did notice, and this is just an opinion from looking at the all-time lows vs the last sold prices- it appears the economy hit bottom around year 14 days 250-300 and is now in the process of recovery, at least as far as prices are concerned. If history is any guide, wages will eventually rise and inflation will become prevalent, barring another unpredictable act of the "Gods," or a supply shock.

Thus, and it was left out of the original proposal; a hypothesis. That is, that there will be a statistically significant increase in inflation over a period of roughly six standard months.

Now that this has been proposed and approved, Ashura, is there somewhere else in specific that I should post results? Not that hard numbers will be shared with everyone, but general observations will. Perhaps politics forum? Economics, being a social science, seems most relevant there.
Back to top Go down
View user profile
Sponsored content




PostSubject: Re: Proposed Study: Galactic CPI   

Back to top Go down
 
Proposed Study: Galactic CPI
View previous topic View next topic Back to top 
Page 1 of 1
 Similar topics
-
» University study, Storytelling and games. Tell me your favorite char.
» Chaos Icon Line Study
» Good example of a Brain Study
» Proposed seating in the Shed End.
» did you guys knew about this Galactic kids next door?

Permissions in this forum:You cannot reply to topics in this forum
The Scholars Guild :: The Guild Halls :: Closed Projects-
Jump to: